Delhi has been worst hit in the second wave as most of the hospitals were running out of oxygen and ventilator beds. Now it is being assumed that a third Covid wave may come and children may suffer the most.

To understand the current Covid situation in the city and possibility of Covid’s third wave Drug Today Medical Times Correspondent Rohit Shishoidia speaks exclusively to Dr BL Sherwal. Dr Sherwal is a microbiologist and the director of Delhi government run Covid dedicated Rajiv Gandhi Super Specialty Hospital.
Dr Sherwal shares his experiences in regard to two Covid waves, settling down of waves and how Delhi is prepared for the third wave.

DTMT: What is the truth behind the third Covid wave?
Dr Sherwal: Nobody can predict when and where a wave will come. Whatever scientists and doctors are predicting about waves, they are predicting about them on the basis of historical data and experiences of earlier pandemics and epidemics in the medical literature. Usually pandemics settle in different waves.
DTMT: How does a pandemic settle down?
Dr Sherwal: There is always a likely pattern of settling down of a  pandemic. It can happen only when disease eradicates itself or the disease has curative medicine. If there are no medicines then there should be vaccines or preventive measures such as wearing masks and hand hygiene. At present we do not have medicines but we have vaccines which can help in the development of herd immunity in the community.

DTMT: How can herd immunity be developed in a community?
Dr Sherwal: Around 70% of the population of an area needs to have immunity to fight against the disease. Take an example of a village. If there are 1000 people living in the village. 300 out of 1000 get vaccinated while 200 get infected. Another 200 are found asymptomatic and they develop antibodies. So, these three kinds of people make 70% and it is considered that the majority of the population will have preventive ways to fight the infection leading to herd immunity.
Like this time when the peak came, neither there was immunity nor Covid appropriate behavior was being followed. There were shortage of medicines and proper line of treatment was missing. Further shortage of oxygen, being key factor for saving lives at that point of time added fuel to the fire. Adding to this  patients had to run from pillar to post for securing a hospital bed. All these factors led to numerous deaths.
That is why the second wave was deadly. If we analyze first wave data with the recent second wave, I feel that the third wave will be a smaller wave since many people have got antibodies through vaccinations, natural infections and many acquired them due to exposure to  Covid infection asymptomatically.
It is difficult to say if 70% people have got the infection or not but the major chunk of population has got the infection in the second wave. The other factor is that people are now scared due to high mortality. You wouldn’t find many people who have not lost their near and dear ones. Now people are more fearful and this fear can be utilized positively. This fear can make people self regulate themselves by adopting corona appropriate behavior. This way society, country and world can overcome  this pandemic. It is assumed that viruses will not find new hosts and peaks will not come. It would be a smaller wave.

DTMT: Is Delhi prepared for the third wave?
Dr Sherwal: I expect that Delhi will have a maximum 5000 cases of the virus per day but we are preparing for 45000 cases per day. We are fully prepared with manpower, oxygen and beds so that people do not run around for the treatment.

DTMT: Are children most vulnerable in this third wave?
Dr Sherwal:  Nobody can say that children will be mostly infected in the third wave. It is being assumed because elders suffered in the first wave, youngsters in the second wave and children may suffer in the third wave. Even if children suffer from Covid they develop immunity very fast and would have milder symptoms .
 Children could be vulnerable to infection because they will be exposed if they move out of their homes and would be going to schools. But they can be protected  by not opening schools and vaccinating their parents so that parents do not carry the virus to their homes. After one and half months children will also be vaccinated.
Hence, whatever the next wave is predicted by September and October, I feel this will come but in a milder form and the country will endure it. Another minor wave may also come in March and April next year (2022) but this will be the last and final settling wave.

DTMT: Can reinfection occur?
Dr Sherwal: It can surely happen. But it will be in milder form.